Friday, December 22, 2006

24th cycle will be a big one

According to the specialists the becoming circle 24 will be a really big one. We don’t know when exactly starts but it will be soon. We have just to wait to see it. So propagation will improve dramatically next years. And this is one-way. I give you here some documentation for this prediction as I found it in NASA pages.

In the plot, left, black curves are solar cycles; the amplitude is the sunspot number. Red curves are geomagnetic indices, specifically the Inter-hour Variability Index or IHV. "These indices are derived from magnetometer data recorded at two points on opposite sides of Earth: one in England and another in Australia. IHV data have been taken every day since 1868," Cross correlating sunspot number vs. IHV, they found that the IHV predicts the amplitude of the solar cycle 6-plus years in advance with a 94% correlation coefficient.

According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make it one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years—which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history.

To read the whole story follow the link:

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