What is going on with the sun?

We all are waiting for sun to wake up. But thing are going slow. So slow that a new option of a very weaker 24 cycle than previously prediction. Some people speak that a new Little Ice Age is coming. Take a look to the following articles:
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Predicting the nest solar age

Solar prediction is a problematic exercise as there are no proper physical models that allow predictions of even the next cycle. Therefore predictions tend to be based on statistical inference with little in the way of physics or modelling involved. For example, longer solar cycles tend to be followed by a weaker cycle.

The closest thing to a scientific consensus on solar prediction comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, consisting of members of NASA, NOAA, ISES and other US and International representatives. In March 2007, they released a consensus statement for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Their position:

"In light of the expected long interval until the onset of Cycle 24, the Prediction Panel has been unable to resolve a sufficient number of questions to reach a single, consensus prediction for the amplitude of the cycle. The deliberations of the panel supported two possible peak amplitudes for the smoothed International Sunspot Number (Ri): Ri = 140 ±20 and Ri = 90 ±10."

In other words, cycle 24 may be larger or smaller. The cycle is expected to begin in early 2008 and predictions are largely speculative until it begins. The one thing we do know is when Solar Cycle 24 begins, the warming sun will add to the global warming trend as it heads towards solar maximum, nearly doubling the projected temperature rise from greenhouse gases from 2008 to 2012 (Camp 2007).

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Lessons from past global climate changes
Proponents of CO2 as the cause of global warming have stated that "never before in the history of the earth has
climate changed as rapidly as in the past century, proving that global warming is being caused by anthropogenic
CO2" “:Our civilization has never experienced any environmental shift remotely similar to this. Today’s climate
pattern has existed throughout the entire history of human civilization” (Gore, 2006). Statements such as these are
easily refutable by the geologic record. Figure 5 shows temperature changes recorded in the GISP2 ice core from
the Greenland Ice Sheet. The global warming experienced during the past century pales into insignificance when
compared to the magnitude of at least ten sudden, profound climate reversals over the past 15,000 years. As shown
on Figure 5, the temperature in Greenland changed abruptly:
• 1. About 15,000 yrs ago, a sudden, intense, climatic warming (~12° C; ~21° F) caused dramatic melting of
large Ice Age ice sheets that covered Canada and the northern U.S., all of Scandinavia, and much of northern
Europe and Russia. Sea level that had been 120 m (~400 ft) lower than present rose quickly and submerged
large areas than had been dry land during the Ice Age.
• 2. A few centuries later, temperatures again plummeted (~11° ; ~20° F) and glaciers advanced.
• 3. About 14,000 years ago, global temperatures rose rapidly (~4.5°C; ~8° F) once again and glaciers
receded.
• 4. About 13,400 years ago, global temperatures plunged again (~8°C; ~14° F) and glaciers advanced.
• 5. About 13,200 years ago, global temperatures increased rapidly (~5°C; ~9° F) and glaciers receded.
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• 6. 12,700 yrs ago global temperatures plunged sharply (~8°C; ~14° F) and a 1000 year period of glacial
readvance, the Younger Dryas, began.
• 7. 11,500 yrs ago, global temperatures rose sharply (~12° C; ~21° F), marking the end of the Younger
Dryas cold period and the end of the Pleistocene Ice Age.
• 8. 8,200 years ago, the post-Ice Age interglacial period was interrupted by a sudden global cooling (~4° C;
~7° F) that lasted for a few centuries.
• 9. About 1000 AD, global temperatures rose several degrees to begin the Medieval Warm Period, which
lasted a few centuries, then ~12300 AD dropped ~4°C (~7° F) in ~20 years.
• 10. About 1600 AD, global temperatures cooled several degrees at the beginning of the Little Ice Age,
which lasted about two centuries.
Figure 5. Abrupt global climate changes in the past 15,000 years. (Modified from Alley, 2004)
Magnitude and significance of previous global climate changes
All ten of the global climate changes described above were far more intense (12 to 15 times as intense in some
cases) than the global warming of the past century (compare them in Fig. 5), and they took place in as little as 20–
100 years. As shown on Figure 5, the global warming of the past century (0.8° C) is virtually insignificant when
compared to the magnitude of the earlier global climate changes.
Not a single one of these sudden global climate changes could possibly have been caused by human CO2 input
to the atmosphere because they all took place long before human CO2 contributions to the atmosphere began. The
cause of the ten ‘natural’ climate changes that occurred earlier could easily have been the same as the cause of
present global warming.

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So are we heading to a new Little Ice Age or Maunder Minimum as it is called? There only clues. It happened in the past (1645-1710) and it will happen again to the future. I am afraid that many of us we will live so long to see what really happen. But even though, it is not a good news for amateur radio activities.

SURPRISE

Looking today traffic on 30m I had a new surprise. My signal, just 1w output on a vertical, was reported by K1JT station 7829Km away. Amazing! I have already told you that WPSR is very funny playing with as funny is propagation in early 24.

Playing with WHISPER

"WSPR (pronounced "whisper") stands for "Weak Signal Propagation Reporter." This program implements transmitting and receiving for a digital soundcard mode called "MEPT_JT", an acronym for "Manned Experimental Propagation Tests, by K1JT". This is the initial release of a GUI-based version of the program."
With these words, Joe Taylor, this brilliant mind that honors our hobby being a ham himself, describes his tool for checking propagation by snooping very weak signals around the world. I installed it and played with it like a toy. It is really amazing to decode transmissions i HFof only 1 watt or so from thousands miles away. Among real DX stations I "heard", as you can see in the snagit snaps, it was Patrick, F6IRF. I did not really know that he was involved and it was a good surprise for me. It reminded me the bottles of beers we shared last year in Friedrichshafen fest.

So give a try to WHISPER! It deserves it and after all it has a lot of fun.

Cheers and beers...

I do not usually post personal moments but this is an exception. We gather together to a cozy place just to celebrate my Honor Roll achievement. It was a very nice evening telling stories about past and planing future ham plans with a lot of beers in between. Call signs that honor me with their presence: SV8CS, SV8AXZ, SV8DOU, SV8KOK, SW8KOR, SW8KOU and SW8KOJ. I thank them all as that moment was a goal of a life time trip and I was very happy having them with me breaking the tape.

In the other hand last weekend I played a lot with CQ WPX CONTEST. The propagation was fair, especially in upper bands. I listened mostly on 15m and 10m and I heard many well known calls as 8R1K, 5D5A, 6V7E,WP2Z, 8P1A, FG/OM3LA, ST2KSS,ZD7X, 9V1YC,C01R, D44C,E20WXA and finally my friend Sardjana YB2ECG whom I usually meet in every digital mode contest and it was the first time I heard his voice. In other words I spent a very interesting weekend.

23 vs 24!

Well it seems that I was a little optimistic about solar cycle 24. The recent activity belongs to cycle 23! Unbelievable but true. Read the following note taken from NASA page and you understand what is really going on.

Barely three months after forecasters announced the beginning of new Solar Cycle 24, old Solar Cycle 23 has returned. Actually, it never left. Read on.
"This week, three big sunspots appeared and they are all old cycle spots," says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. "We know this because of their magnetic polarity."
Earlier today, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) made this magnetic map of the sun:

It shows the north and south magnetic poles of the three sunspots. All are oriented according to the patterns of Solar Cycle 23. Cycle 24 spots would be reversed.
What's going on? Hathaway explains: "We have two solar cycles in progress at the same time. Solar Cycle 24 has begun (the first new-cycle spot appeared in January 2008), but Solar Cycle 23 has not ended."Strange as it sounds, this is perfectly normal. Around the time of solar minimum--i.e., now--old-cycle spots and new-cycle spots frequently intermingle. Eventually Cycle 23 will fade to zero, giving way in full to Solar Cycle 24, but not yet.

Meanwhile, on March 25th, sunspot 989, the smallest of the three sunspots, unleashed an M2-class solar flare. Flares are measured on a "Richter scale" ranging from A-class (puny) to X-class (powerful). M-class flares are of medium intensity. This one hurled a coronal mass ejection or "CME" into space (movie), but the billion-ton cloud missed Earth.

While the CME was still plowing through the sun's atmosphere, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft heard "a heaving sound" coming from the loudspeaker of his 21 MHz shortwave receiver in New Mexico: listen. It was a Type II solar radio burst generated by shock waves at the leading edge of the CME. A thousand miles away in Virginia, David Thomas recorded the same emissions on a chart recorder he connected to his 20 MHz ham rig: look. "What a pleasant surprise," says Thomas.

We could get more of this kind of activity in the next 7 to 10 days. It will take about that long for the sunspots to cross the face of the sun. The sun's rotation is turning the spots toward Earth, which means the next CME, if there is one, might not miss. CME strikes do no physical harm to Earth but they can cause Northern Lights, satellite glitches and, in extreme cases, power outages.

The real significance of these spots is what they say about the solar cycle, says Hathaway. "Solar Cycle 24 has begun, but we won't be through solar minimum until the number of Cycle 24 spots rises above the declining number of Cycle 23 spots." Based on this latest spate of "old" activity, he thinks the next Solar Max probably won't arrive until 2012.

Stay tuned to Science@NASA for solar cycle updates.

Welcome 24

The sun waked up at last. As a permanent space weather watcher I had to see so many sun spots for months. the solar flux is better than 80 and the new trip started for good. No doubt the 24 cycle is here and loud. Be patient to see the results in propagation terms. But of course it is a bit early for that.

Writing these words an other major expedition that kept us company for several days is QRT. The 9X0R was a well organized, well equipped and having great operators. The recent expedition in Rwanda by German guys does not affect at all their popularity. Especially their online log even with some glitches and not real time as they expected, it gave them a great push. I worked them in 19 of 20 slots they showed up, but there are many they worked the whole 20.

By the way tonight we have little party, celebrating my Honor Roll. Well, not yet achieved as 3 final cards are missing (the entities have been worked and it is a matter of QSLing), but who can wait to drink some beers for that? You are all invited!

TX5C...EPILOGUE!

"TX5C went QRT 1400z March 15th 2008, two days earlier than originally planned. Due to both weather and sea conditions, the Captain of the Shogun determined that an earlier departure was required to ensure the safety of his crew and our team. We began moving equipment offshore two days prior in challenging conditions. By the time the last team members were extracted from the atoll late in the day, all but one of the zodiac spare propellers had been broken on the reef. The Shogun pulled anchor at 0130z March 16th and as the sun set, the team watched Clipperton Atoll slowly fade from view."

The expedition wend worse than anticipated due to the weather and other causes. The target of 100,000 qso was not approached. It turned out to be quite more difficult to operate as they want in this remote place of the world under a fierce nature and extreme temperatures. As for me my qsl card is on its way to N7CQQ to be cfm. And this is the last step as you Know. The 9X0R and 5T5DC are just routine exercises.